Understanding Key Economic Indicators

　　By Desmond Lum In these times when market forces appear increasingly complicated and more volatile， it is all the more important to understand the professional jargon and terminology in the market place in order to be able to better make our investment and business decisions. Understanding key-economic indicators will assist in the decision making process， providing a snapshot of the current situation and an insight into the future. Each economic indicator tells us something about the economy or inflation. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is probably the most important report as it is the whole framework where other economic indicators fall under. Using the textbook formula where Gross National Product = Consumption + Investment + Government Spending + Exports - Imports， some of the indicators will fall into the above-mentioned category e.g. retail sales figures will fall under Consumption， construction spending under investment， to name a few. There are also indicators that are broader that tell us about the economy itself rather than the component， e.g. employment figures， leading indicators， money supply figures (M3). Inflation figures， Produce Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will， in short ， inform us of the changes in wholesale prices ， cost of consumer (retail) goods and services respectively. An indicator that is useful must be accurate， timely and reliable. It depends entirely on the integrity of the national statistical system responsible. It is vital to know the accurate components of anindicator. We have to be mindful of the limitation of these statistical figures too. Some indicators can be historic or extremely volatile， and therefore their value are reduced. It is better to compare the most recent data with earlier months， or take a moving average for the past 3，6 or 12 months to smooth the data. It will tell us if there has been a significant change in trend and whether a new direction is under way. Timeliness of an indicator is also significant. Although the reported figures are important， it is crucial to recognise that markets react to the variance to the consensus forecast than to the absolute change in the indicator. Markets do not like surprises and can be frustrated with volatility upon subsequent revisions to the numbers published， even though significance of the absolute number diminishes with each passing month. In the US， together with the monthly employment report released on the first Friday of the month， an important survey by US National Association of Purchasing Management (NAPM) is released within the first three business day of the month， which tracks the economic movements fairly well. These two reports are considered by many as valuable adjunct

　　to the Commerce Department’s index of leading indicators. The Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) in the US acts as an early warning system， telling us when the economy is about to change direction. This composite index of 11 leading indicators has a good record of providing accurate forecasts.The total index performs better as a prediction tool than any of its parts. This monthly figure is available on the last business day of the month and has low volatility. As a general rule， turning points in the economy are signalled by three consecutive months of LEI changes in the same direction. This leading indicator is like a lighthouse， giving the rest of the world economies a glimpse of the direction of the world’s largest economy. Singapore is highly dependent on trade， about four times our GDP in 1997 at US $217.7 billion. The US is the most important destination for our electronics exports， followed by Malaysia. Electronic goods make up about 70% of non-oil domestic exports and about 45% of manufacturing sector. It is therefore imperative to note the demand of electronic goods from the US. As Singapore imports much of the raw materials needed for its value-added processes in the manufacturing concerns， the retained import figures become a good gauge of future activities. Retain Import， a leading indicator (usually about three months) for the manufacturing sector， is still down. It fell 15.6% for 1998. This spells weak manufacturing and electronics figures in the following two quarters. July’s total trade figures fell 9.1%， Singapore-made exports (also known as non-oil domestic exports) fell 2.3% worse than expected， led by the 5% decline in exports of electronic goods. Although the accuracy of the predicting quality is debatable， the retained import figure does give a relatively good indication of the direction of the manufacturing and electronic activities and as such the Singapore economy. Theindicator that reflects the domestic demand is the non-oil imports. It fell 19.3% in July， the fifth month in a row. On a three-month trend basis， the decline is accelerating， reflecting extreme weakness in domestic consumption.

        了解主要經(jīng)濟指標的意義

　　在目前這種時期，市場越來越變幻莫測、波動也越來越大，明白 市場的專業(yè)術語和名詞因此變得更重要。主要經(jīng)濟指標傳達的信息包 括當前的經(jīng)濟狀況以及未來可能出現(xiàn)的情況，能協(xié)助制定投資和商業(yè) 決策。

　　每個經(jīng)濟指標都能給我們一些有關經(jīng)濟表現(xiàn)或通貨膨脹的信息， 其中應以國內生產(chǎn)總值最重要，因為它包括了全部的經(jīng)濟指標。經(jīng)濟 課本把國內生產(chǎn)總值的方程式列為： 　　消費+投資+政府開支+出口-進口 從以上的方程式可看出它 包含了許多經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)，如零售銷售數(shù)字包括在消費、建筑開支屬投 部分等。

　　除此之外，就業(yè)數(shù)字、領先指標和貨幣供應也是很有用的數(shù)字。

　　通脹方面，生產(chǎn)物價指數(shù)和消費物價指數(shù)分別讓我們知道物品和服務 的批發(fā)和消費價格的變動。

　　經(jīng)濟指標必須準確、及時和可靠才算有用。這完全依賴有關統(tǒng)計 系統(tǒng)是否完善。知道有關指標是由哪些成分組成也非常重要。另外， 我們也應知道這些統(tǒng)計數(shù)字的局限性。

　　有些指標可能過時或是波動劇烈，減低了它們的有效性。因此， 比較妥當?shù)淖龇ㄊ前炎钚聰?shù)字與之前幾個月份的比較，或是利用過去 3個月、6個月或是12個月的平均移動數(shù)。我們將能因此知道是否出現(xiàn) 顯著的趨勢改變或者在朝新發(fā)展方向。

　　指標的及時性也不容忽略。不過有一點應該注意的是，市場通常 不是對實際數(shù)字做出反應，而是它與市場的平均預測相差有多遠。市 場不喜歡“驚喜”，也不喜歡波動或之后做出調整。

　　在美國，除商業(yè)部公布的領先指標指數(shù)外，每月初公布的就業(yè)報 告和采購經(jīng)理指數(shù)也是兩份重要的報告。后者能相當準確地反映制造 業(yè)的活動。

　　領先經(jīng)濟指標指數(shù)在當?shù)乜墒莻�預先警報系統(tǒng)，能顯示經(jīng)濟是否 正要轉向。它包括11個指數(shù)，整體指數(shù)比任何一個單一指數(shù)更準確地 預測走向。通常，這個數(shù)字在每月的最后一個工作日公布。

　　一般上，如果連續(xù)三個月往同個方向轉變，是經(jīng)濟正轉向的征兆 。它也像是個燈塔，讓全世界窺探美國這個世界最大經(jīng)濟體的走向。

　　新加坡是個高度依賴對外貿(mào)易的國家，去年的對外貿(mào)易額相等于 國內生產(chǎn)總值的4倍。美國是我國電子產(chǎn)品出口的最大市場，馬來西 亞僅排在之后;而電子產(chǎn)品占非石油國內出口的七成，制造業(yè)的45% 。因此，源自美國的電子產(chǎn)品需求是個重要的指標。

　　由于我國生產(chǎn)的增值產(chǎn)品需要許多進口原料，保留進口因此也是 個值得注意的數(shù)字。

　　做為制造業(yè)領先指標(通常是三個月)的保留進口，目前仍處在 下跌狀態(tài)。今年上半年它跌了15.6%，意味著未來兩季制造業(yè)和電子 業(yè)的表現(xiàn)會是疲弱。

　　7月份的數(shù)字便顯示總貿(mào)易額減9.1%，電子產(chǎn)品出口跌5%是非石 油國內出口落2.3%、跌得比預期還嚴重的原因。

　　非石油進口則能反映國內需求。它在7月份連續(xù)第五個月下跌， 再跌19.3%。以三個月的走勢看，下跌的趨勢越來越急，顯示國內需 求非常疲軟。

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