Are you investing in the right industry?

　　● By Joshua Tay 　Does the term book-to-bill ratio sound familiar to you? Do you know the demand and supply numbers of private condominiums in Singapore for the next year ? If you do， you must have already performed some sort of industry analysis on the electronics and property industries (or sectors as commonly referred to in stockmarket terms). 　Most investment processes include some sort of industry analysis. This is important because many studies have shown that over a period of time， some industries have per-formed better than others. For example， between 1987 and 1996， banking stocks in Singapore have generated better returns than other industries such as shiprepair. Industry analyses will uncover these performance differences and help identify both unprofitable and profitable opportunities (situations) 　It is also important to note that past performance alone will not help predict future performance. The factors or conditions that helped an industry to prosper in the past will change over time. Identifying and studying these factors will provide some clues to the entry and exit points of the investments. Going back to our earlier example， economic growth is an important criterion for banks' earnings. Between 1987 and 1996， Singapore enjoyed an uninterrrupted average GDP growth of 8.9%. This allowed the banks' earnings to grow at a compound rate of 11.3% when the broader market generated only 8.5% growth. With GDP growth decelerating because of the Asian crisis， can we maintain the same sanguine outlook for the banks? 　Having determined that industry analyses are important for successful investing， the next step is to find out how we can go about doing one. There is no generic framework that is applicable to all industries， but there are commonalities which we can identify. In a free market economy， demand and supply are key determinants of price， and price is always an important contributor to any profit-driven organisation. Hence， a successful indstry ana-lysis will have to identify the underlying fac-tors driving demand and supply. 　Factors that drive demand vary across industries， and are too numerous to list. However， it is important to note that demand can be categorised as "seasonal"， "cyclical" or "secular". As the word suggests， seasonal fac-tors recur year after year. Cyclical factors， on the other hand， follow very closely to the economic cycles of the market. Secular factors are more long term in nature. Seasonality or economic cycles will have minimal impact on secular trends. 　Take an airline as an illustration. Most Singaporeans take their vacation in December. That is why airline seats are difficult to secure during that time. This is the seaso

　　nal factor because it occurs every year around the same time. Having said that， Singaporeans usually take vacations more frequently when the economy is doing well， and less so during reccessionary times. The rise and fall in demand in accordance to economic activities is the cyclical factor. Finally， the middle class population in Singapore has been rising over the last 20 years. This group is generally more affluent. Part of the lifestyle usually includes taking regular vacations to exotic destinations. Such lifestyle doesn't change annually， nor does it follow the ups and downs of economic growth. The demand for air travel will grow so long as the middle class population continues to increase. This is an example of secular demand. 　Classifying demand factors into these categories is very useful. As long-term inves-tors， we do not want to be constantly reacting to signs that are short term and volatile in nature such as seasonal， and to a lesser extent， cyclical trends. Buying and selling stocks based on these short-term trends are not only expensive (brokerage cost) but difficult to time as well. Instead， we should focus on long-term trends. They usually have a longer and more permanent impact on share prices. 　A key factor in identifying an attractive industry is pricing power. The ability of an industry to price its product at a profitable level without compromising its business pros-pect is important， and this is affected by many factors. Inelastic demand allows the tobacco producers to maintain good profits despite the rapidly rising tariffs all these years. Barriers to entry is another factor. Mobile-phone charges used to be very expensive because there was only Singapore Telecom providing the ser-vice (monopoly). With increased competition from M1， rates have been declining gradually. All things being equal， the more competitive the industry is， the lower the pricing power， and hence profits. Competition may be good for the consumers， but it seldom benefits the shareholders. 　Another factor that will impact the com-petitive environment of an industry is the cost structure. In general， indsutries with high fixed costs are more competitive than those that have high variable costs. We often hear about coun-tries being accused of 'dumping steel' onto other countries. Well， this is the case in point. Steel mills are expensive to construct. But once built， the investment costs are 'sunked'. On the other hand， the running cost to produce steel is relatively low. Since there are so many steel mills around the world (almost every country has one for strategic reasons)， supply is in abundance. As competition intensifies in the global market， recovering investment cost of the mills becomes a secondary objective for management. What is more important

　　is to keep the production ongoing and sell the steel at a price that can at least cover the variable cost component. These mills will definitely be loss-making， but at least they can continue to operate and not generate serious unemploy-ment for the economy (steel industry is very labour-intensive). 　Having looked at the fundamental issues， do we always buy into an industry with positive trends developing? The answer is 'no'. Con-fused? Here is why. The key to any successful investments is to stay ahead of what the market is discounting. Suppose we are bullish on the outlook of the residential property sector because owning a home is every Singaporean's dream and the island has limited landsupply. But this view is widely observable. Further-more， most of the residential property stocks have already outperformed the market by huge margins. These are signs that the marke has probably discounted the positive conclusion of our analysis. As such， the investment upside is probably limited. Conversely， if our conclu-sion unearths new information from the gene-ral market， we may have discovered something interesting here. 　To confirm that we have a good find， check out the valuation to see if it is attractive. There are many valuation tools， but the commonly used ones are Price/Earnings (PE)， Enterprise Value/EBITDA*， Price/Book(P/B)， and Dis-counted Cash Flow (DCF). Make a cross-industry comparison as well as historical com-parison. Going back to our property example. If our conclusion is new to the market， the industry is trading at the lower end of its histo-rical PE band， and it is also very attractive on PE terms versus the other industries in Singapore...bingo! 　In conclusion， I would like to leave you with a brain teaser. Imagine this is 1996 and you are an investor looking at the Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM) industry:

　　DRAM is a semiconductor chip used in most electronic products such as personal computers. The business is cyclical in nature because corporate and private consumption of PCs usually rises when the economy is doing well. There are， however， two secular trends that underpin the growth in the industry. First， more and more people are buying PCs for their home and oiffice. Second， the requirement of DRAM per PC is also on the rise as processing power of computer increases exponentially. On the competitive issue， the cost to build a wafer fab is extremely high (about US$1b)， and the technology is usually state-of-the-art. Besides capital and technology， there are no other significant barriers to entry. Margin for the industry had been very good because o supply shortage. This probably explained why share prices outperformed the market in 1995. The historical five-year PE band for selected stocks in the industry between 1991 and

　　1995 was about 10 to 100. The average PE during the period was 30. The industry is currently trading at a PE in the low teens. 　Would you invest in this industry?

       你是否選對(duì)投資領(lǐng)域?

　　你對(duì)“訂貨與帳單比例”這個(gè)名詞熟悉嗎?你知道新加坡私人公 寓在明年的供需數(shù)據(jù)嗎?如果你知道，那么你肯定已針對(duì)電子業(yè)和房 地產(chǎn)業(yè)作了行業(yè)分析(或者是股票市場(chǎng)所慣用的“組別”)。

　　大多數(shù)投資都帶有行業(yè)分析的成分。這當(dāng)然重要，因?yàn)樵S多研究 顯示，經(jīng)歷時(shí)日有些行業(yè)會(huì)較其他來(lái)得出色。例如，從1987至1996年 之間，新加坡銀行股所創(chuàng)造的回報(bào)率便較其他行業(yè)來(lái)得高，比如修船 業(yè)。行業(yè)分析可將它們的差別表現(xiàn)暴露無(wú)遺，也讓我們辨別它們到底 盈利與否。

　　需要注意的是，過(guò)去的成績(jī)并不能幫我們預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)的表現(xiàn)。促使 某項(xiàng)行業(yè)在過(guò)去蓬勃發(fā)展的因素或情況，將會(huì)隨著時(shí)間而改變。辨別 和研究這些因素，可為投資的進(jìn)退決定提供線(xiàn)索�；氐角懊娴睦�子， 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是銀行盈利的重要標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。從1987到1996年之間，新加坡取得 了8.9%的持續(xù)平均經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。這使銀行盈利取得11.3%的復(fù)增長(zhǎng)，而 整體市場(chǎng)的增長(zhǎng)卻只有8.5%。當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)因亞洲危機(jī)而下跌時(shí)，我們 的銀行業(yè)是否還能維持這種樂(lè)觀局面呢? 　　既然我們知道行業(yè)分析對(duì)投資的成敗關(guān)系重大，下一步便要知道 如何進(jìn)行。沒(méi)一種方法可以普遍應(yīng)用于所有行業(yè)，但我們還是可以從 中找到一些共同點(diǎn)。在自由市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)中，供需是決定價(jià)格的關(guān)鍵，而 價(jià)格則對(duì)盈利機(jī)構(gòu)貢獻(xiàn)良多。因此，成功的行業(yè)分析，便須對(duì)那些影 響供需的基本因素作出辨別。

　　影響需求的因素因行業(yè)而異，可是不勝枚舉。然而，我們須知， 需求可以分為季節(jié)、周期或長(zhǎng)期。顧名思義，季節(jié)因素每年重復(fù)，而 周期因素則與市場(chǎng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)周期密切相關(guān)。長(zhǎng)期因素卻是長(zhǎng)期的。季節(jié)性或經(jīng)濟(jì)周期兩者對(duì)長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)的影響都不大。

　　以航空公司為例。多數(shù)的新加坡人都習(xí)慣于在12月度假。這就是 為什么在那時(shí)候較難訂到機(jī)位。這是季節(jié)因素，因?yàn)樗�在每年的同�?時(shí)間發(fā)生。然而，新加坡人在經(jīng)濟(jì)情況良好時(shí)經(jīng)常度假，而在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰 退時(shí)則減少。供需情況依經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)而變化是周期因素。另外，過(guò)去20 年來(lái)新加坡的中產(chǎn)階層大為增加。這群人一般上較為富裕，他們經(jīng)常 到國(guó)外度假。但這種生活方式不會(huì)每年改變，或者隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)而起 伏。所以，只要中產(chǎn)階層人口繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，航空的需求便會(huì)上升。這 是長(zhǎng)期需求的一個(gè)例子。

　　將需求因素加以歸類(lèi)非常實(shí)用。作為長(zhǎng)期投資者，我們不須經(jīng)常 因季節(jié)性或周期性這些短期、多變的訊號(hào)作出反應(yīng)。基于這些短期因 素來(lái)買(mǎi)賣(mài)股票不只昂貴(手續(xù)費(fèi))，而且時(shí)間也難以拿捏。因此，我 們應(yīng)該將焦點(diǎn)集中在長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)。這項(xiàng)因素通常會(huì)對(duì)股價(jià)產(chǎn)生長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)和持 久的影響。

　　價(jià)格是尋找具有吸引力行業(yè)的重要因素之一。一個(gè)行業(yè)如果能將 產(chǎn)品定在盈利水平卻又不致于影響商業(yè)前景很重要的，但這點(diǎn)受到許 多因素的左右。缺乏彈性的市場(chǎng)需求，使香煙制造商得以維持良好的 盈利，即使在關(guān)稅持續(xù)上升的情況下。行業(yè)障礙是另一項(xiàng)重要因素。

　　流動(dòng)電話(huà)的收費(fèi)一度非常昂貴，因?yàn)橹挥行码娦盘峁┻@項(xiàng)(壟斷)服 務(wù)。當(dāng)M1帶來(lái)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)后，收費(fèi)率便逐漸下降。在正常情況下，行業(yè)越競(jìng) 爭(zhēng)，價(jià)格就越便宜，而盈利也是。競(jìng)爭(zhēng)可能對(duì)消費(fèi)者有利，但對(duì)股東 來(lái)說(shuō)好處不多。

　　另一項(xiàng)對(duì)行業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)環(huán)境大有影響的因素是價(jià)格結(jié)構(gòu)。一般上，固 定成本高昂的行業(yè)會(huì)較變動(dòng)成本高昂的行業(yè)更有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。我們常聽(tīng)聞 一些國(guó)家向另一些國(guó)家“傾銷(xiāo)鋼鐵”而遭來(lái)非議，而這正是問(wèn)題所在 。鋼鐵廠的建造極為昂貴，可是一旦建成，投資成本便“沉淀”下來(lái) 。而另一方面，生產(chǎn)鋼鐵的變動(dòng)成本卻相對(duì)低廉。既然全球有許多鋼 鐵廠(基于戰(zhàn)略理由，幾乎每個(gè)國(guó)家都有)，供應(yīng)非常充足。當(dāng)全球 市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)加強(qiáng)，爭(zhēng)取投資成本的回籠已成為管理層的次要目標(biāo)。更重 要的卻是讓生產(chǎn)維持下去，并以只求收回變動(dòng)成本的賣(mài)價(jià)將鋼鐵賣(mài)出 。這些鋼鐵廠肯定會(huì)虧損，但最少它們可以繼續(xù)營(yíng)運(yùn)，而且不致于帶 來(lái)嚴(yán)重的失業(yè)問(wèn)題(鋼鐵工業(yè)極為勞動(dòng)密集)。

　　考慮了基本因素后，我們所要投資的行業(yè)是否應(yīng)從趨勢(shì)樂(lè)觀方面 下手?答案是“不”。如果你感到莫名其妙，以下就是解釋。在投資 上取得成功的關(guān)鍵，是跑在市場(chǎng)的前端。例如，擁有房屋是每一個(gè)新 加坡人的夢(mèng)想，而且這個(gè)小島土地有限，所以我們對(duì)于住宅產(chǎn)業(yè)前景 看好。但是這項(xiàng)觀點(diǎn)已被普遍認(rèn)同。此外，大多數(shù)住宅產(chǎn)業(yè)股票的表 現(xiàn)已經(jīng)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超越市場(chǎng)。由此可知，市場(chǎng)可能已將我們的結(jié)論加以消化 。因此，投資盈利可能有限。相反的，如果我們的結(jié)論是超出一般觀 點(diǎn)，那我們可能有所發(fā)現(xiàn)。

　　要確定我們是否有所發(fā)現(xiàn)，讓我們從估價(jià)中來(lái)證實(shí)。估價(jià)的方式 眾多，但較為常用的是本益比、企業(yè)價(jià)值/稅前盈利和現(xiàn)金流量貼現(xiàn) 。我們要作出全行業(yè)的比較和歷史比較�；氐椒康禺a(chǎn)的例子，如我們 的結(jié)論在市場(chǎng)上仍屬新穎，這行業(yè)又在本益比歷史波動(dòng)的下限交易， 而與新加坡其他行業(yè)相比這本益比也非常具有吸引力……那我們中獎(jiǎng) 了! 　　最后，大家來(lái)動(dòng)動(dòng)腦筋。假設(shè)這是1996年，而你又是一個(gè)關(guān)注動(dòng) 態(tài)隨機(jī)存取記憶體的投資者： 　　動(dòng)態(tài)隨機(jī)存取記憶體是應(yīng)用于電子產(chǎn)品的半導(dǎo)體晶片，如個(gè)人 腦等。這項(xiàng)業(yè)務(wù)基本上屬于周期性，因?yàn)槠髽I(yè)和個(gè)人對(duì)個(gè)人電腦的消 費(fèi)常隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮而增加。然而，有兩項(xiàng)長(zhǎng)期因素支撐著這行業(yè)的增 長(zhǎng)。首先，越來(lái)越多家庭和公司購(gòu)買(mǎi)個(gè)人電腦。其次，由于電腦的處 理能力大量提升，使每臺(tái)電腦對(duì)動(dòng)態(tài)隨機(jī)存取記憶體的需求不斷增加 。從競(jìng)爭(zhēng)角度而言，建造晶圓代工廠的成本極為高昂(約10億美元) ，而科技則十分先進(jìn)。除了資本和科技，便沒(méi)有其他顯著的行業(yè)障礙 。由于供應(yīng)短缺，所以這項(xiàng)行業(yè)的利潤(rùn)向來(lái)不錯(cuò)。這就是為什么在 1995年這行業(yè)的股價(jià)超越市場(chǎng)。從1991到

　　1995年之間，這行業(yè)內(nèi)某些 股票的5年本益比歷史波動(dòng)大約是介于10至100。而在這期間的平均本 益比是30。目前這行業(yè)是在本益比偏低的范圍內(nèi)交易。

　　你會(huì)在這行業(yè)投資嗎?

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